Business activity index (PMI) in different countries. Manufacturing PMI Indices of PMI ism

PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) business activity index in the manufacturing sector is calculated based on data provided by purchasing managers for production volume items, new orders, inventory levels and employment. PMI is one of the key indicators of the state of the economy of the country issuing the indicator.

PMI calculation

The PMI index consists of five important components, each of which has its own fixed percentage in the total value of 100%:

the number of new orders in the production segment (new orders), which are assigned 30%;
the employment rate is 20%;
production volumes (production) 25%;
inventory indicator (inventories) 10%;
activity of suppliers (supplier deliveries) 15%.

In order to determine the values of these individual factors, which add up to the total percentage value for a given period, all managers are asked a series of simple questions. At the same time, the answers do not imply a detailed nature, but must correspond to the option used in the tests, that is, “yes”, “has not changed” and “no”.

To compile an index of manufacturing activity PMI, managers - participants in the survey - will get their opinion on:

intensity of production volumes (Production);
the number of new orders for export (New export orders);
commodity value (Commodity prices);
employment level (Employment);
deliveries (Vendor deliveries);
import volumes (New import orders);
the number of orders received from customers (New orders);
volumes of goods for short-term deliveries (Items in short surply);
status of the portfolio of unfilled orders (Order backlogs).

How does the publication of the manufacturing PMI index affect the exchange rate?

Excess value 50 indicates the growth of the manufacturing sector and is a positive factor for the national currency. A drop in the PMI below 50 is indicative of a slowdown.

PMI index in the manufacturing sector, it belongs to survey or diffusion indices and allows you to track the dynamics of the economic cycle, being a leading indicator. The observed close correlation of the manufacturing PMI index with economic dynamics makes it possible to predict future values of growth rates.

It should be noted that the PMI index of business activity should be interpreted not on the basis of its momentary values. The specificity of its influence lies in the accuracy of determining economic cycles in the long term. So, for example, if a value exceeds the 50% level, it can be expected that the largest increase in business cycles will be recorded after seven months.

It should also be taken into account that a decrease in the value to 35% is a sure economic stagnation, which indicates serious problems in the country's economy, which, of course, will find its direct reflection on the national currency rate. At the same time, if the index stays above the 44% mark, then the reaction of investors will be ambiguous, since such values usually indicate the possibility of a quick recovery, which means that such data does not give serious reasons for concern.

When are manufacturing PMIs released?

Eurozone countries and the UK

Publication date: twice a month (provisional and final indexes)
Source: Markit Economics
Website: www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/Page.mvc/PressReleases

Publication date: monthly
Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM)
Website: www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport

China

Publication date: monthly
Source: Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation
Website: www.hsbc.com

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Among various economic indicators, the PMI index has a great influence. Considering that after the publication of its values, the market often covers a real fire and quotes rush in one direction, you should figure out what this indicator means and how to interpret it in order to improve the quality of trading and, accordingly, the profit from trading.

Designation

The manufacturing activity index PMI is an important statistical report. It is prepared on the basis of surveys conducted among managers (top managers) involved in the industrial segment. As a result, up-to-date data on the optimal level of pricing is collected, trends in the development of the business sector, as well as the entire economy of the country, are calculated. Such conclusions are made on the basis of a comparison of information received from managers with previously released figures. Thus, the benchmarking process measures the difference in industrial volumes, the number of orders received by the manufacturing sector, the existing stocks of goods and the intensity with which suppliers of raw materials operate. It is worth remembering that the PMI index also has a second name, which may be found in some sources - NAPM.

How PMI is calculated

The considered index consists of five important components, each of which has its own rigidly fixed percentage in the total value of 100%. Yes, it contains

the number of new orders in the production segment (new orders), which are assigned 30%;
the employment rate is 20%;
production volumes (production) 25%;
inventory indicator (inventories) 10%;
activity of suppliers (supplier deliveries) 15%.

The questions themselves are designed in such a way that the structure of the answers allows you to make an objective logical conclusion regarding the current indicator, which will be demonstrated by the PMI index. But it must be taken into account that people's answers are still subjective, so the value of this economic indicator always contains a psychological factor that must be taken into account during trading. For experienced traders, this is not a secret, and beginners should learn to combine them with the general atmosphere that prevails at that moment in the market when analyzing the released data.

Key questions from participants

To get a comprehensive analysis and compile an index of manufacturing activity PMI, managers - survey participants - will get their opinion on:

intensity of production volumes (Production);
the number of new orders for export (New export orders);
commodity value (Commodity prices);
employment level (Employment);
deliveries (Vendor deliveries);
import volumes (New import orders);
the number of orders received from customers (New orders);
volumes of goods for short-term deliveries (Items in short surply);
status of the portfolio of unfilled orders (Order backlogs).

How to use economic indicator values

The US PMI index is usually published on the first business day of the new month. This event takes place at 10:00 am EST. This is the local time in Washington. In Moscow it will already be at that time 18:00. The National Association of American Governors conducts surveys and prepares conclusions on them.

Below we will describe how the considered economic indicator affects the mood of market participants. It is worth noting that this is a very important point, since all pairs are somehow connected with the dollar, which means that their rates can change dramatically after the publication of the indicator. But in order to speed up the cases of successful transactions, it is also worth using the PMI index of Russia for trading, which will create volatility for USD/RUB and EUR/RUB, as well as similar indicators of Germany and France - the largest developed countries of the Eurozone, whose economic indicators are reflected in the exchange rate Euro.

Specificity of influence

At the same time, if negative values are released, which will be below the 50% barrier, one can expect the largest possible drop in business cycles already 3 months after the publication date. In addition, investors pay special attention to an important psychological threshold, which is set at around 44%. In those cases when the PMI index falls below this important mark, holders of large capitals will sell the US dollar, as they will expect a recession, that is, a recession in the US economy. Such weak data always point to a slowdown in GDP growth.

Outcome

Thus, the PMI index is one of the leading economic indicators that allows you to fairly accurately determine the state of the economy and, more importantly, its level of stability. In combination with other similar indicators (price redistribution and industrial production index), investors determine the safety of long-term investment in the United States economy.

The business activity index (abbreviated as NAPM or PMI) is leading indicator. It is formed in the form of a report based on the results of a survey of managers (purchases in the industrial sector). Services, which account for approximately 40 percent of US GDP, have a different index to evaluate - the PMI services index. The purpose of the PMI index is to study the influence of the economy on the price formation process, to provide reliable information about business trends (trends). In other words, this leading indicator is an indicator of the optimism of the upper and middle levels of economic managers. The business activity index is also needed to evaluate changes in new manufacturing orders, industrial production, employment, as well as inventories and delivery speeds.

PMI index is measured as a percentage, the interval is 0-100%.
Formula:
PMI = 0.3 * (NewOrders_New Orders) + 0.25 * (Production_Production) + 0.2 * (Employment_Employment) + 0.15 * (SupplierDeliveries_Supplies) + 0.1 * (Inventories_Inventories).

Survey participants, when examining the index, give simple answers like “lower” (less), “higher” (greater), or “no change” when compared to the previous month. Also, each participant can freely comment on their answers. Each part of the report is compiled into a diffuse index, which is defined as the sum of the change in percentage values "below" and "above" and half of the % "no change" responses.

The diffuse index can also have a value from 0 to 100%. Its ranges have different characteristics: the level of 50% is typical in the absence of changes, more than 50% - dynamics for improvement, below 50% - a decrease.

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is the ultimate indicator of business optimism. This leading indicator is based on a weighted average of the following: new orders, employment, products, lead times, and inventories (see formula).

The questionnaires for participants included the following items:
. Production - production
. New orders - how many orders customers have made
. New export orders - new export orders
. Order backlogs - a portfolio of outstanding orders
. Commodity prices - commodity prices
. Inventories 0f purchased materials - purchased inventories of materials
. Imports (New import orders) - import, new import orders
. Employment - employment
. Vendor deliveries (Delivery time) - delivery time, by means of the supplier
. Items in short supply (Supplier) - short-term delivery goods.

Leading indicator exit time

The PMI report is released at 10:00 Washington DC or 18:00 Moscow time, usually on the first business day of the month following the reporting month. The indicator report is published by the National Association of Purchasing Managers (National Association 0f Purchasing Managers).

Features of the PMI index and interaction with other indicators

Assessing the dynamics of the PMI index, analysts are trying to make a forecast of changes in industry, orders, prices for manufactured goods, employment and, most importantly, GDP dynamics for 6 months ahead. If the value of this leading indicator is more than 50% - the rate of GDP growth will continue to grow, if the value of the PMI index is below 50 percent - there is a high probability of a fall in the rate of GDP growth. When the PMI index reaches 44%, we can expect the growth of the Gross Domestic Product to be negative. The PMI index is of great importance for analyzing the economic situation and evaluating financial markets.

The data is analyzed according to 5 key points:

1. When forecasting the state of the business cycle according to the PMI index, various threshold critical levels of the indicator are taken into account, which are of great importance for the economic situation:
. high point of the cycle
. 50%
. 44%
. the lowest point of the cycle.

The PMI index is a fairly reliable indicator for predicting business cycle turning points. For 40 years, analyzing the highs of the PMI index, it was possible to consistently determine that the peak of the business cycle will be reached in about 7 months. The lows of the PMI index showed that the downturns in the business cycle were reached 3 months after the release of the lows of the PMI index.

50% - the level when respondents are divided into 2 equal parts: the first half believes that business conditions are improving, the second half are worsening. The 50% level is highly significant psychologically for financial markets and serves as a signal foreshadowing a potential weakening of the economy.

Most often, the PMI index falls below 50%, when we should expect a downturn in the business cycle in 2 months. If the value of the PMI index falls below 44%, the economy has begun to decline and the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product will be negative. During the recession phase of the economy, the PMI index tends to drop to around 34.8%. If the indicator does not fall below 44%, then most likely the economy will recover quickly.

In our example (see Fig. 1 - PMI index, UK), the index has never fallen below 50% (the minimum value is 53.4%), which is a good indicator for the country's economy, as evidenced by the growth of the indicator (September 2010 - January 2011).

Fig.1

2. To assess the general perspective of the economy - Real GDP (real Gross Domestic Product) and Industrial Production (industrial production).

The value of the PMI index is ahead of Industrial Production by an average of 2 months. For 1992, these 2 indicators had a correlation of about 75%, while the value of the PMI index must be greater than 45.9% for a linear increase in industrial output. With a PMI index value of 50%, as a rule, we have an Industrial Production growth of 2.1% per annum. When assessing the ratio of GDP growth rates and PMI index values on a quarterly basis, it is believed that with a PMI index value of 43.8%, GDP growth will be equal to 0, that is, GDP (forecast) - GDP (previous) = 0. If the PMI index is 50%, then real GDP growth will be 1.9 percent.

3. The leading indicator of inflation is the so-called. price distribution index (diffuse price index - Рrices diffusion index index). Statistics say that this indicator gives a good forecast - up to 59% of PPI fluctuations, including the prices of raw materials and semi-finished products for the next month.

4. How to predict the state of the business cycle according to the PMI report? The index well reflects the state of production. For example, when a country emerges from a recession, one should expect a predetermined growth of the component - new orders (new orders), which will be reflected in the growth of production. If the economy improves, inventories and employment will also rise. Prices will be a slightly belated reflection of the strengthening economy. It is worth saying that the indicator of new orders (new orders NAPM index) can be used as a leading indicator of weakness in the economy. Also, the following components (inventories and employment) predict business cycle downturns.

5. Interrelation with other indicators: for example, NAPM employment diffusion index and manufacturing employment diffusion index are very similar to each other.

In the economy, in addition to direct indicators such as gross domestic and external product, industrial production growth or the cost of the consumer basket, there are derivatives. PMI PMI is one of them, characterized by powerful calculations and research, but having an indirect impact on the economic sphere.

The business activity index is a conditional value showing changes in the behavior of structures and companies in the current economic situation compared to the previous reporting period - a week, a month, a year. If an enterprise reduces production volumes, cuts employees, closes branches, it is considered that the business activity index is decreasing. If output and sales are growing, new markets are opening up and the order book is growing, the business activity index is growing.

The business activity index appeared in the United States of America at the beginning of the 20th century as Purchasing Manager Index(PMI). The Institute of Supply Management was a pioneer in the development and implementation ( Institute for Supply Management, ISM), founded in 1915.

Initially, its specialists called the industrialists of the city of Tampa and asked one question: how are you?

There were three possible answers to choose from: worse, better, and the same. From this the conclusion was drawn: if the vast majority of people are doing worse last month, so the PMI is falling. If everyone has spoken better”, therefore, PMI went uphill. True, this method had a significant drawback: it was the subjectivity of the judgments of businessmen, as well as the influence of mood, unjustified hopes, and family troubles.

Specialists ISM decided to develop a methodology that would realistically reflect the Index. In 1948, letters were sent to the respondents, where they were asked at the end of each month to “tune up” their performance indicators and compare them with the previous reporting period. Of course, the financial side remained classified, but businessmen received a kind of "funnel" containing data on:

the number of orders;
output volume;
team employment;
warehouse stocks;
the price of imports and exports.

Such a scheme has drawbacks. If the number of orders and the volume of output can be calculated, then the employment coefficient is conditional - often the respondent works alone from morning until late evening. Warehouse stocks in companies working “for the client” could be equal to zero or one (which side to look at), and the price of imports and exports was of little concern to anyone.

Business activity index in different countries

In 1951 the Bank Japan introduced the indicator TANKAN(短観), short for kigyō tan ki keizai kan soku chōsa - short-term economic forecast. It was based on the work of the Institute for Economic Research of West Germany IFO. True, by 1957 the Japanese had developed an independent indicator, which retained its former name, but somewhat changed the calculation method.

By the way, in Germany The Business Climate Index was launched in 1949 IFO is an acronym for I information (information) und FO rschung (research). The American system served as the basis here, since in the post-war years the United States generously “exported” to Europe the foundations of its economic structure, calculation methods and indices.

It is no coincidence that IFO and PMI are extremely similar.

In Great Britain PMI appeared in 1991, and here it really concerned purchasing managers. The old-world lions reasoned that it was these specialists who saw the greatest state of the market. True, the indicator, developed by the Royal Institute of Purchasing and Supply of Great Britain, was soon transferred to the operational management of Markit Ltd.

In Russia there is Entrepreneurial Confidence Index calculated by the Federal State Statistics Service. It is published monthly, over 4,000 medium and large enterprises of three sectors of the economy "Mining", "Manufacturing", "Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water" participate in the survey.

On average, the Index is 47-48% (which indicates the uncertainty of business), but does not have any impact on the Russian economy.

Impact of the PMI

Over time, PMI has moved from the category of theoretical indicators to conditionally applied. Without having a significant impact on asset quotes or derivatives prices, PMI shows the mood and expectations of investors. In the same States, PMI is calculated in only two versions - industrial and service sectors - and the number of respondents is slightly more than 700.

The Bank of Japan initially tried to include everyone it could: in 1957 there were 524 respondents, and in 2015 there were more than 11 thousand from 93 sectors of the economy. Considering that TANKAN is published quarterly and an entire institute works for it; But there are still ratings calculated in the prefectures!

Great influence on the market is exerted by the British Markit Ltd, which calculates the index for 34 countries of the world. In 2009, it was launched in China under the name Caixin PMI, and differs in the composite scheme. The calculation includes about 400 enterprises, both industrial and service. And two years earlier, in 2007, Markit LTD launched the combined Eurozone PMI index.

The decline in the business activity index in the country should alert a trader investing in the instruments of this state. We are talking about a slowdown in economic growth, which means that we can conclude that a recession is coming. When news of a decrease in IDA is released, it is advisable to sell existing assets and transfer funds to developing instruments.

The decline in the US Index leads to a fall in dollar quotes against the main competitor - the euro. In parallel, the quotes of manufacturing companies and government debt bonds are declining - they are the first to be hit. It is difficult to say how urgent it should be to get rid of depreciating assets: the IDA is similar to a pendulum and shows a constant fall and rise.

First of all, as in any other macroeconomic statistics, attention is drawn to the dynamics. If it is positive (that is, the current value of the indicator exceeds the previous one), then the value of the asset/currency may increase. If business activity decreases (there is a negative trend), this may provoke a depreciation of the asset/currency. It is important to understand that the longer the trend, the more significant the reaction can be. If the business activity index continues to decline from month to month, this may indicate that they will also decline.

What else should you pay attention to when working with PMIs? It is believed that if this indicator is above the mark of 50 basis points, then in general, business activity is in the growth zone. If the indicator falls below 50 points, then there is a reduction in business activity.

investments in competing assets;
sale of assets and investment in them after N-time (after depreciation);
transfer of funds to assets less dependent on IDA - food, telecommunications.

Trader's actions with the growth of IDE:

investments in the real sector of the economy - it always rises in price more strongly;
work with currency pairs against a competing currency;
attracting derivatives with bullish play.

Video about PMI

The formula for calculating the PMI

US PMI is calculated as the sum of scores of five business factors: PMI = 30% (orders) + 25% (production) + 20 (employment) + 15% (supplies - the same imports and exports) + 10% (stocks). The figure obtained during the sampling is compared with the indicator of 50% (“golden mean”). If it is less, PMI falls, if it is more, it grows. Posted on the 1st of each month.

In Germany, the IFO index calculated according to the American model, but put on a scale from -100 to +100. The reference period is the year 2000, when the PIIGS problems had not yet touched the Eurozone, and Germany was not burdened with a monstrous debt burden. The publication of the index takes place at 08:00 German time (-2 hours in Moscow) on the last business day of the month.

In Sweden PMI calculated since 2009, representatives of 200 companies participate in the survey. It is similar to the American methodology, but here orders are allocated 35%, sales volumes 25%, employment and deliveries - 20% each. The index operator is SwedenBank, the world does not pay much heed to the Scandinavian PMI: the state is not a key player and is not even a member of the European Union.

In Japan, TANKAN is published twice a year, at the end of June and December at exactly 08:50 (14:50 Moscow time), 10 minutes before the start of the exchanges. This was done to influence the trading in the beginning half of the year and determine the dominant - bulls or bears. It is noteworthy, but it includes only one digit. Extended information, with explanation and reports, comes out in a week or two.

In the Land of the Rising Sun, two types of surveys are used within TANKAN: quantitative (the larger the company, the more significant its word), and qualitative, where each respondent has one vote. When calculating the index itself, the diffusion principle is applied, where the arithmetic mean of the listed surveys is taken.

Instead of output

It is believed that the Business Activity Index has an indirect impact on the economy, as it is too vague and incorrect. Although a competent investor, tracking the macroeconomic situation, may notice a direct connection. For example, in February 2015, published statistics from China dropped the indices of the Asia-Pacific region. MSCI Asia Pacific shed 0.3%, NIKKEI - 0.7%, Shanghai Composite - 2.6%.

In 2013, after publishing the IFO, Germany brought down the euro-dollar pair below 1:1.3, which was regarded by investors as surrendering the positions of the “locomotive of Europe”. And in February 2016, Chinese statistics, the worst since 2012, drove up the prices of gold, silver and futures in the US. Then ETFs joined in and began to “merge” palladium and platinum, which led to a drop in prices.

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Definition of the term index of business activity

What are they talking about business activity indices

PMI business activity index

Faktura.ru business activity index

However, the main disadvantage of building stock indices based on a continuous sample is the problem of liquidity. The fact is that the last contract price is usually used to calculate the index. However, for some shares agreements may not be carried out for a long time, and the stock exchange index in such cases begins to “lag behind life”. If there are many such stocks, then the index becomes inertial and poorly meets the needs of investors.

The third problem of building an exchange index is related to the fact that the situation on the market is constantly changing - bankruptcies, mergers and acquisitions occur, new organizations arise that rapidly increase capitalization. On the other hand, the longer the history of the index, the greater its value - it is possible to trace the reaction of the stock market in the past to certain events in different macroeconomic conditions, which gives good grounds for predicting further market movements. For this reason, a dilemma arises: if changes are made rarely, then the index begins to "lag behind the market", if often, the index "loses history", i.e., retaining its former name, it actually begins to reflect changes in another market sector. Therefore, from time to time, stock markets change the composition of the index - they withdraw some indices and introduce others to replace them. There are no formal criteria for changing the composition of the sample and taking into account ongoing changes in the market; in practice, these issues are resolved by the index calculation, with the involvement of authoritative experts.

Integral (composite) indices

Despite the relative simplicity and convenience of calculating stock indices, they do not always reflect the economic cycle and, accordingly, the current state and dynamics of business activity. This disadvantage is especially pronounced in developing countries and countries with economies in transition, where there are no pronounced economic cycles, there are no stock exchanges, or they are just beginning to develop. In addition, the stock index reflects past events. But investors are primarily interested in what may happen in the near future.

Given these limitations, the so-called integrated business activity indices are increasingly used in international practice. When developing such an index, an attempt is made to combine several indicators into one, which, due to its generality, would predict economic cycles most clearly. Therefore, the index is designed in such a way as to cover all the main components of business activity in the country: employment, production, income, consumption, trade, investments, stocks, prices, money And loan and etc.

The components of the index are selected based on their economic significance, statistical adequacy and the possibility of operational measurement and accumulate both quantitative and qualitative information in various industries and areas. Such indices have the properties of a leading (predictive) indicator and are able to indicate the moment of a change in the trend in economic activity. This happens because the polls systematize the opinions of a large number of people who are professionally engaged in "their" business in different industries, who know and feel the development trends.

The best-known index of this group is the IFO index of the institute in Germany, according to which the level of business activity is assessed on a monthly basis, as well as expectations for the next six months. It is formed by polling more than 7 thousand managers. When calculating the index to assess business activity, companies use the following formulations: good; satisfactory; bad. And to express their business expectations: more favorable; unchanged; more unfavorable.

To calculate the index IFO four sectors are considered, which, through numerous surveys, have been recognized as sectors that form the “face” of business activity in Germany. These include: production of goods, construction, and retail(Fig. 2). Based on them, graphs are drawn up showing an assessment of business activity and an assessment of business expectations.

After that, a business activity trend vector and a vector of expectations are formed in general for four industries. The vector of development of the business environment is “added” to them, and as a result, three vectors are obtained that allow for a comprehensive assessment of the state and development of business activity in the country as a result of measures taken to create a favorable business environment2.

In such indices, the most important question is how to interpret their graphic meaning? After all, the index charts themselves IFO have no effect on the market. They only reflect the psychological, if you like, upward or downward trend that is currently taking over the market.

In general, the chart patterns that have been identified and classified over the past hundred years reflect important features of the PSYCHOLOGICAL state of the market. First of all, they indicate which mood - bullish or bearish3 - dominates the market at the moment. And if these models worked in the past, there is every reason to believe that they will work in the future, because they are based on human psychology, which does not change over the years. We can formulate the main signal of the index: the key to understanding the future lies in the study of the past. Or it can be quite different: the future is just a repetition of the past.

The semantic interpretation of the IFO index is carried out in points: the higher its value, the more favorable the forecasts of the economic condition. The value of the index can vary from 80 to 120; the level of business activity in 2000 is taken as 100. Changes in the index are tracked in dynamics (on a monthly basis) and are given as a percentage. Figures below 100 are an indicator of a slowdown in the pace of economic development compared to the base period (in our case, 2000) and are unambiguously considered by the market as a negative factor. A value above 100 shows growing optimism among entrepreneurs, which in turn causes the euro (EUR) to strengthen; SWISS FRANK().

The main purpose of the chart is to help you recognize a trend and follow it throughout its lifespan.

In this case, the correct assessment of the possible time for a trend reversal is important. To do this, any important signal to increase or decrease the rate in the market must pass through the values of all indices. In other words, we can speak about the beginning of an upward trend only if the values of all indices have covered their previous intermediate peaks. If this happens with only one index, then it is too early to talk about an uptrend in the market. The signals do not have to, of course, absolutely coincide with each other, but the less they are separated in time, the more reliable. If there is a discrepancy in the dynamics of the indices, it means that the previous trend is still in effect, the nature of the market has not changed. In particular, the graph of the IFO index clearly shows the moment when all three graphs (business activity, business expectations and business environment) rushed down sharply from the second half of 2008, indicating a sharp change in the trend in the negative direction and thus symbolizing the beginning of the crisis .

Another tool for "measuring" business activity is the ratings compiled by large consulting and international rating agencies based on surveys and studying the opinions of leaders of large companies around the world. Such indices do not reflect daily, weekly or monthly changes in business activity and have a number of significant differences from stock and integral indices:

The rating sets the classification criterion according to which a phenomenon is ranked, while the index itself is a criterion for assessing the development of this phenomenon in dynamics (i.e., a relative value);

Ratings have, as a rule, a universal methodology, which is based on the calculation of indicators with an unambiguous interpretation. Therefore, this methodology can be used for different countries. At the same time, all known business activity indices "inevitably" have elements of originality in their methodology, because they reflect the features of development and components of the business environment in each particular country.

These differences reduce the attractiveness of the ratings from the point of view of an operational tool for assessing business activity. However, their value lies in the fact that they provide a comprehensive picture of the development world economy and business around the world as a whole and on specific continents, regions, countries.

It is extremely important for governments and businesses to “see the future” and act on the challenges and opportunities that exist today and may arise tomorrow. According to the responses of managers of large companies to the questions of the annual PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) survey, 72% of respondents believe that the problem of scarcity of natural resources will only worsen over time. At the same time, only 26% believe that increasing the efficiency of technology can solve this problem. This suggests that competition behind Natural resources(primarily energy) will grow in the long term and lead to a tough struggle for access to them and, accordingly, an increase in the profitability of resource sectors.

The results of such surveys make it possible to determine the prospects for the growth of markets and individual companies, the emergence of new types of products and new customers. To maximize return on investment in the long term, determine the general directions for the development of the company, management needs to have an idea of the risks and opportunities in various regions of the world, track the development of other companies both in terms of competition and cooperation opportunities in international markets. To gain access to such a “global vision” is especially important for big business operating at the transnational level (and for those who only plan to enter it), carrying out strategic investments calculated for the medium and long term.

At each stage of development, it is important for a business to understand what exactly is needed for “growth above oneself”. What are the limitations of development and what is important to change in order to achieve the goal. The answers to this question are not always simple and unambiguous.

Let's just give some examples. A rating based on a study by the McKinsey Global Institute showed that a third of the gap in the level labor efficiency in the Russian Federation compared to the United States is due to outdated production facilities. It would seem that a fairly simple conclusion suggests itself - it is necessary to modernize the existing capacities and thereby increase their productivity by 30%.

However, as the study shows, another important reason for the backlog is inefficient labor. It takes 3 times more people to produce a ton of rolled steel in the Russian Federation than in the US. Thus, even with investments in the modernization of the industry, success will largely depend on the skillfully carried out optimization of business processes, reducing the number of personnel and redistributing the workforce.

At the same time, comparison with leaders (in certain markets, in certain industries), often called benchmarking today, provides important indicators - both for the business itself and for the state. Continuing the example of productivity in the steel industry in the Russian Federation, the following comparison made by McKinsey experts can be made: . workers by 2020”. Obviously, the government and business need to solve this problem together, developing adequate options in order to ensure, if possible, a painless flow of surplus labor to other sectors of the economy.

Attempts to “measure” business activity in Uzbekistan

In 1996-2003 The Center for Effective Economic Policy (CEEP, now the Institute for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Analysis under the Ministry of Economy), together with the State Committee on Statistics, conducted market research on the business activity of industrial enterprises.

When conducting research, it was used, developed and used by member countries of the company for economic cooperation and development (OECD). It is based on a survey and generalization of the opinions of respondents (heads of enterprises) on the main areas of activity of enterprises in comparison with the previous quarter and a forecast of the situation for the next quarter.

When processing questionnaires received from respondents on questions of a qualitative nature, the relative frequency of each answer option was calculated in percent. Next, the difference in the relative frequencies of positive and negative answers to questions, which is an index of changes, was calculated.

1. Traditional, contained in similar foreign questionnaires. This was supposed to achieve comparability of the results of market research in the cross-country context;

2. Related to the peculiarities of the development of the economy of Uzbekistan.

Generalization of the results of the study of business activity of industrial enterprises was carried out in the context of ten major industries: non-ferrous, chemistry and petrochemistry, mechanical engineering, metalworking, printing, construction industry, light industry, food, flour milling, forestry, woodworking and pulp and paper.

The assessment of economic changes at industrial enterprises was carried out in the following main areas:

Assessment of the economic situation;

Use of production facilities;

Benefits and privileges for foreign investors.

Production infrastructure;

non-production infrastructure.

The final list of indicators that shape the business environment can be formulated after joint consultations with a wide range of stakeholders, both among entrepreneurs and the expert community. Here, the support of such organizations as the Commercial and Industrial Private Banks annually conducts surveys to assess the business environment in Uzbekistan and therefore has the most complete “set” of expert assessments of the quality and constituent components of the business environment in Uzbekistan today.

The effectiveness of the impact of the business environment on business activity should be reflected in the dynamics of certain indicators (indicators of business activity). What should be the list of these indicators? While it is difficult to give a definitive list, it seems that the results of the change in the business environment in the industrial sector should be reflected in the dynamics of the following indicators:

The volume of the index of industrial production;

employment;

Investments;

export;

Modernization.

It should be noted that some of the above indicators may be interdependent with each other (for example, investments and). In addition, not all of them may be a reflection of business environment factors. Therefore, additional analysis is required 1) the relationship of these indicators to each other and 2) the relationship of each of the indicators with each of the factors of the business environment. Such an analysis requires numerous calculations and the establishment of the so-called “tightness” of the connection, which in the expert community is commonly called the “correlation coefficient matrix”. And the regression coefficients between the various components of the business environment and the resulting indicators will allow you to determine the weights of each of the business environment factors. This will make it possible to “deduce” the integral index of business activity in industry. In addition, the obtained coefficients correlations will allow predicting changes in business activity in the industrial sector in the short term.

After “working out” the construction of an index of business activity in industry, one can multiply this experience in constructing similar indices in other industries and in general throughout the economy.

The dynamics of the listed indicators is supposed to be analyzed in quantitative (Goskomstat data) and qualitative dimensions (surveys). Both quantitative and qualitative data will be generated from the same sample, which should reflect the characteristics of the general population. Based on IFC's business environment survey, this sample should include at least 500 representatives. However, the question of determining the sample is still open and requires additional consultations with the expert community.

Since a significant part of the calculations will be based on the data of the State Statistics Committee, which are formed mainly on a quarterly basis, it is advisable to calculate the business activity index on a quarterly basis as well.

Only an open dialogue and feedback with all stakeholders will help shape the final vision of the business activity index, which reflects the current state and development trends of business in Uzbekistan.

Notes:

1 The very first average price of the Dow Jones index (July 3, 1884) included only 11 stocks of different companies, 9 of which were railroad. In this form, the index successfully existed until 1897, and then it was divided into two components: an index of 12 industrial companies and an index of 20 railway companies. In 1928, the index of industrial companies included not 12, but 30 shares, and in 1929 there was also an index of public utilities.

2 The indexes of this group include the business activity index of the Association of Managers and Kommersant Publishing House in the Russian Federation, the Japanese Tankan business activity index, etc.

3, these terms are used primarily to characterize the general direction of price changes in the stock market (i.e., a trend) and mean the following: “Bullish” is rising, and “bearish” is falling.

4 According to the IFC, since 1991, more than 16,000 acts aimed at creating a favorable business climate have been adopted in Uzbekistan.

US Stock Indices Britain and the Russian Federation

IFO business activity index ().

IFO Industry and Business Survey, May 2009. (index, 2000=100 seasonally adjusted)

Sources

glossary.ru - glossary.ru

academic.ru - dictionaries and encyclopedias on Academician

fxeuroclub.ru - Forex currency market Euro club

business.compulenta.ru - Compulenta is an online publication dedicated to the news of the computer industry, science and technology.

subcontract.ru - information support portal for small and medium-sized manufacturing businesses

review.uz - magazine "Economic Review"

Encyclopedia of the investor. 2013 .

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