The article provides complete visual information about how and why market capacity is calculated, and contains theoretical and practical information for independent calculations.

A little theory

Unfortunately, not all entrepreneurs are aware that the development of any business requires a careful and targeted strategic approach. Making decisions blindly can lead to significant financial losses, excess production or lost profits, decreased competitiveness and, as an extreme option, the ruin of the company. One of the main tools for making management decisions is knowledge about the structure and conditions of the market, its capacity. Let's give examples.

Let's say you sell goods for 200,000 rubles per month, and together with your competitors - for 800,000 rubles. But you know that the market can consume goods worth 950,000 rubles, how will you behave in this case? Surely, you will begin an aggressive marketing policy towards other players in order to win the remaining market share?

Another example: your sales are 450,000 rubles/month, and together with your competitors, similar products are sold for 600,000 rubles/month. while the market can purchase a similar product for 1,000,000 rubles. What will you do with this information? Of course, expand production.

Or the third situation: your sales are 900,000 rubles/month, together with your competitors you sell for 980,000 rubles/month, and the maximum purchasing power of the market is 1,000,000 rubles/month. What does this state of affairs tell the manager? - the need to invest stable income from sales in the development of a new product or even business.

To summarize: market capacity is the amount of a product that can actually be sold in a clearly defined market in a specific period of time. Capacity may be temporary

• daily (how much bread can one region buy in a day?),
• monthly or quarterly (how many hairdressing services will the city buy per month?),
• annual (how many tons of confectionery products will a particular region eat in a year?).

And on a territorial basis, respectively, local and niche. Also, market capacity can be potential (the most probable here and now), actual (total sales volumes of all operators) and available (that part of the market that your company can conquer).

Now let’s figure out how to get this valuable information and calculate market capacity.

What data is needed to calculate market capacity?

Incoming information	Explanations
market definition and audience size (KA - number of audience)	Here we determine the territory in which the goods are sold, the number of actual or probable consumers and the form of accounting. For example, goods such as bread, cable television, toilet paper, and televisions are purchased not individually, but for the family, so the market is calculated in households. Personal consumption goods - cosmetics, clothing, piece products and items (bottled beer, cakes, toothbrushes, etc.) are calculated per person. Quantitative indicators can be obtained from free statistical sources.
degree of consumption intensity and frequency of purchases (PP - consumption frequency)	The second input figure for analysis is the frequency of purchases of a product in a certain period of time (or, as an alternative, the rate of consumption of a product per person). For example: cable television is paid once a month (monthly purchase), bread - daily, toilet paper - once 2-3 weeks (pack per family), televisions - once every 5-7 years. This kind of information can be obtained based on a consumer survey, generally accepted standards (for example, it is recommended to change a toothbrush every six months) or on an expert assessment.
average bill - average cost of a product in rubles. (SP - average price)	Not only your product is taken as a basis, but also the entire competitive line. You can calculate the average cost yourself by receiving the price lists of all competitors. Customer surveys (at what price do you usually buy this product?) are also very effective.
average volume and type of product (O - volume)	For example, if we are talking about: bread: loaf, loaf or half a loaf; cable TV - number of channels (package volume); toilet paper - roll or package; TVs - diagonal; carbonated drinks - bottle volume, etc. This indicator may not be used in calculations. but it is a kind of criterion for consumption volumes.

Calculation technique

Step 1: calculate the maximum potential capacity

To calculate the total potential market capacity of your product in a certain region, we use the formula:

Total potential market capacity = KA*PP*SC

Let's look at the example of a cable television provider. Input data:

Considered time interval: quarter;

Considered territorial market: city N with a population of 320,000 people;

Number of audience: 106,000 households (if there is no information on the number of households in your region, you can use Russian population statistics, according to which an average of 3 people live in one house).

Consumption frequency: 1 time per month (subscription fee), respectively, 3 purchases per quarter (if your product is purchased less frequently, then the frequency may not be expressed in whole numbers: an annual subscription to a solarium translated into a quarterly period will have a frequency of 0.25).

average price: 180 rubles

Average volume and type of product: Basic package with 120 channels.

Let's calculate: 106,000 consumers *3 purchases per quarter*180 rub. = 57,240,000 rub. - we got the potential market capacity. i.e., such an amount can be earned by all cable television providers, provided that absolutely all apartments and houses in the city are connected. Now it is necessary to bring these figures closer to commercial realities.

Step 2: determine the audience using the product

We continue to look at the example of the capacity of the market for cable television services in a particular city. We determine the target audience of cable TV services (survey, statistics, observations) and bring it to a certain size.

Let's say, based on the results of a survey, you see that 45% of all respondents living in your coverage area (city N with 106,000 households) use or want to use cable television: (106,000/100)*45= 47,700 households - a quantitative indicator of your market in which all your competitors operate.

Step 3: determine the purchase period

In the case of our example, this period is a month (subscription fee). If you have consumer goods or services, then you should again proceed from the results of a survey of city residents or product consumption standards.

For example, the standard for bakery products per person per day is 300 grams, respectively, per month - 9 kg. Bread is usually bought per family, so one household receives an average of 0.7-1 loaves per day (not everyone eats lunch and dinner at home).

If we talk about cosmetics, then this is an individual product. Eg. Day face cream is usually packaged in 30 ml. One-time use is 0.3-0.5 ml. those. A jar of cream will last a woman for 2-3 months.

Step 4: calculate the average purchase price

To do this, you need to make a price and product range of your competitors.

For example:

We bring the price per ml to our reference jar of 30 ml and see that its average market price is 30 * 2.25 = 67.5 rubles.

Step 5: determine the share of competitors

To do this, it is necessary to conduct a serious study of the representation of competitors and their sales volumes. If we are collecting information for everyday goods, it will be enough to conduct an inventory of competitors' sales points in the city. If these are services, calculate the average flow of clients (observation, survey, purchasing data from employees, control visit). Based on practice, we can say that the simplest and most effective method of obtaining information is guerrilla marketing, or, more simply, questioning competitors’ employees.

For example, a cosmetics manufacturer may instruct its supervisors to measure the availability of competitors' products on shelves or request this information from stores. In the case of cable television, a follow-up call would work well: introduce yourself as a subscriber and ask directly how many people use the services of the provider.

Of course, the numbers will be very approximate, but this is not a problem, i.e. Marker values ​​are needed for calculation.

Step 6: calculate market capacity

To make the description clear, let's return to our cable TV. We have potential capacity, we calculated it by multiplying all households in the provider’s coverage area by the average cost of the package, and we received 57,240,000 rubles or 106,000 subscribers.

Let us remember that this is the absolute maximum of the market, beyond which it will not be able to develop under current conditions. Now let's calculate the actual capacity:

(own sales volume + shares of all competitors).

For example:

• the cable TV provider has 14,000 subscribers in its database (47% of the total volume),
• competitor A - 8,000 subscribers (27%),
• competitor B - 7,000 subscribers (23%),
• small networks - 1,000 subscribers (3%).

Total 30,000 subscribers* average price 180 rubles = 5,400,000 rubles - monthly market capacity covered.

Now consider the survey data, according to which 47,700 households seek or use cable TV services. 47,700*180 rubles (average price) = 8,586,000 rubles. - This full actual (real) market capacity.

We consider: total actual capacity 47,700 - covered capacity 30,000 = 17,700 subscribers (or 3,186,000 rubles, or 37.1%) - this is the uncovered part for which we must fight.

Step 7: calculate the available market capacity

Here we will need information about the share of each competitor. Consider:

In a realistic forecast of available market share, it is natural to assume. that its distribution will roughly correspond to the same pattern observed among competitors, i.e. the percentage share, plus or minus, will remain, which means that cable television providers can count on:

• your company - 8319 subscribers (47% of the total volume),
• competitor A - 4749 subscribers (27%),
• competitor B - 4071 subscribers (23%),
• small networks - 531 subscribers (3%).

8319*180 rub/month = 1,497,420 rub/month - this is available market share, although you can always strive to conquer 100% of the unreached part.

Quite often, when calculating a business plan for a future business, no one remembers that there is such a thing as market capacity. This could be a fatal mistake. Since theoretical calculations based on how many clients are needed to reach the break-even point can be broken by the realities of life - there simply may not be a sufficient number of even potential clients in your area. In order for your business to suffer a similar fate, you need to learn how to calculate market capacity.

Definition

Let's define the terminology. In the simplest possible terms, the explanation of the concept of “market capacity” can be presented as follows: any product or service cannot be sold more than one is willing to buy. In other words, Market capacity is determined by the demand for a particular product or service.

From the above definitions, it follows that it is necessary to first identify the maximum possible number of potential customers before starting to develop a business strategy. Of course, it is not a fact that all possible clients will become yours, since here you need to decide on both the target audience and your potential competitors.

It is completely logical that the conclusion arises that market capacity is a key characteristic necessary for drawing up a business plan. To build a successful business strategy, it is simply vital to estimate the number of your potential customers.

Units

Typically, the assessment of market capacity includes values ​​expressed in monetary or physical terms. Moreover, these values ​​are tied to a specific territory. It should also be taken into account that the calendar year should be taken as the time period during which this value is assessed, since most goods and services have their own seasonal ups and downs. Thus, the practical majority of goods and services have a decline of 20-25% in the summer months, and with the onset of autumn, demand increases.

Formula for calculation

I would like to immediately draw attention to the fact that the determination of market capacity made using formulas is nothing more than a predicted or, in other words, calculated value. Respectively, the data obtained should be correlated with economic and demographic data.

All calculations using formulas and the values ​​used in them are based on past data and it is not a fact that in the next six months or a year the situation will remain unchanged. Therefore, one should not be surprised when these theoretical data do not completely coincide with real ones.

The market capacity formula is as follows:

E = M * C;

E — market capacity in monetary or physical terms (units/year, rub./year);

M - quantity of goods sold in the selected time period (units);

C is the cost of the product (rub.).

Calculation methods

There are different methods and approaches to how to calculate market capacity. Here are just a few:

• capacity modeling based on an economic-mathematical approach;
• expert approach;
• statistical technique.

Using calculations based on different methods, we can get results that will be very different from each other. Any of the above methods has its advantages and disadvantages, so it makes no sense to dwell on any of them in detail. The application of one or another technique occurs individually, depending on the situation and the goals pursued.

Read also: Cash flow discounting: what is it?

Dynamics of market capacity

Over time, market capacity may decrease or increase, or may remain unchanged. Therefore, when calculating market capacity in marketing, it is advisable to take into account possible future changes in the market, both downward and upward.

Before you start making calculations, you need to think about how market dynamics might change, at least in the near future.

When predicting market changes, it is worth paying attention to even such seemingly insignificant factors, such as, for example, troubles with the tax authorities of your direct competitors. Yes and again, yes! Even such “minor” little things can “skew” the market in your favor, especially if the competitor is large.

Of course, the market itself and pricing on it can be influenced by more significant factors. For example it could be:

• political situation;
• the emergence of similar products or services;
• market development;
• pricing policy in the market;
• consumer properties of the product;
• macroeconomic fluctuations;
• change in demand;
• advertising costs;
• many other factors.

How can all these factors affect your future business? And it's very simple. Let's look at a fairly simple example. Let's say you're going to start selling gardening equipment in a city with a population of 800 thousand people. Before you start calculating market size, you need to sit down and think about these things:

• how many potential consumers of your product are in your area;
• your potential competitors;
• solvency of your clients;
• How developed is this segment in your region;
• How can you attract untapped customers?

In addition, nuances such as seasonality will be very important factors in promoting your products. It's no secret that the peak sales of gardening products occur in spring and early summer. It should also be taken into account that if the majority of the population in your city works at several enterprises that are city-forming, then if these enterprises begin to experience difficulties and there are layoffs of workers, then your business may suffer significantly.

As you can see, there are a great many nuances that should be taken into account and most of them are based on assumptions. After all No one can accurately predict the future situation. One can only make assumptions based on previous statistics.

Types of market

There are several types of market: actual, available and potential. Let's take a closer look at each of these types.

The actual market is the market segment that is currently available to your company. It includes paying consumers who use your services or buy your products.

The available market is the market segment that you can win by winning over your competitors' customers. That is, in fact, if you become better than your competitors, their clients will go to you.

Under capacity market refers to the aggregate demand for products in a certain territory and at the current price level. The concept of market capacity strongly correlates with the concept of “” (you can read about market share in this article -) - the capacity indicator is a divisor when determining market share, to be more precise.

It is these two indicators that allow us to assess the dynamics of ongoing changes and the current situation on the market. It is important to understand that they only work in pairs: share without capacity will give an incorrect (or incomplete) picture, and capacity without share is an indicator that is not related to a specific organization.

How is market capacity measured?

Cost and natural measurement of the indicator is possible. In the first case, the result is expressed in units of goods, in the second - in rubles. The second option is considered more preferable, since the first does not allow assessing the company’s profit. The calculation period is most often a year, because many goods (for example, ice cream) have a seasonality factor - the sales schedule of such goods when calculated, for example, by quarter, will take the form of a sinusoid, therefore, it will be problematic to determine the upward or downward movement.

Calculation technique

Market capacity is divided into two types:

Potential capacity is largely a theoretical indicator and is calculated based on the assumption that the level of consumption is maximum. Real capacity takes into account actual consumption and is used in forecasting. Some sources also talk about accessible capacity - that part that the company has not yet conquered, but can conquer.

Capacity calculation is carried out in the following steps:

• The total potential profit is determined. The formula used for this is:

where KA is the number of audiences, CP is the frequency of consumption, SP is the average price.

Consider the example of cable television.

Territory of consumption – cityN, where 999 thousand people live. There is a small aspect here due to the specifics of the product: they connect one cable TV per household, so we need to calculate the number of households. If there is no information on this indicator (which is quite possible), the Russian average is taken - 3 people per household. Consequently, there are 333 thousand households. This will be the value of CA. Purchase frequency – once a month (the user pays a monthly subscription fee). If we calculate the annual capacity, it turns out that PE = 12. Let’s take the average price of the service as 150 rubles.

How to interpret this figure? Quite simply: if every household decides to install cable television, all providers offering services in city N will be able to earn 600 million rubles per year. Naturally, such a situation is impossible - first of all, because not every consumer needs cable channels.

• Determined real audience. There are several methods for determining it - this will be discussed below. One of the methods is a banal survey. Let us accept the condition for the problem under consideration that, based on the results of the survey, it was determined that 50% of respondents use or wish to use cable television. Thus, the potential audience is 167,000 households.

• The purchase period is determined. With our example, this is easy to do, because a person pays for cable channels once a month. The calculation is much more complicated for bread or, for example, hand cream. In the first case, you have to refer to the standard for consumption of bakery products (there is one - it is 9 kg per month per person), in the second - for packaging and one-time consumption.

• The average check is considered. At this stage, a price cut of competitors is made. Consider the following table:

Conclusion: the average cost of the service is 150 rubles per month. Our example is again quite simple to calculate - in the case, for example, with creams, we have to calculate the average cost per milligram, since the container may not be uniform in capacity.

• The shares of competitors are determined. There are a huge number of methods for obtaining information on competitors’ sales. One of the most effective is considered to be guerrilla, that is, surveying directly employees of a competing company; however, this method requires finding an approach to employees who, as a rule, are aware that their actions can be interpreted as opportunistic behavior and even betrayal. In the case of cable television, it is possible to use a test call, that is, posing as a potential subscriber who is at a crossroads of choice, try to find out over the phone how many people use the services of the provider. Of course, all sources other than the company’s profit and loss statement will provide only very approximate information, however, obtaining accurate data is not the goal of this stage.

• Calculating the actual capacity. Let's say we received the following data:

That turns out to be only 95,000 subscribers. Taking into account the fact that the average price of the service is 150 rubles, the covered capacity is 14,250,000 rubles. The total market capacity is determined as the product of the average price by the number of households that have expressed interest in connecting to cable TV. That is, 150 * 167000 = 25050000 is the real capacity. We can conclude that 10,800,000 rubles (the difference between the actual and covered capacity) is the uncovered part that is still available for capture.

• We calculate the available market share. To obtain information about what share of the uncovered part the analyzed company can still capture, it is necessary to determine the share of the company's existing subscribers in the total capacity. In determining the available share, we assume that the distribution pattern will approximately remain the same. Let's determine the share of existing subscribers: 30,000 / 95,000 = 32%. We calculate the available share: 10800000 * 0.32 = 3456000.

Thus, the available share is approximately 3.5 million rubles, although nothing prevents the company from striving to completely conquer the unreached part.

This video briefly explains how to calculate market capacity:

Methods for determining the real audience

As mentioned earlier, before moving from calculating the potential market capacity to calculating the actual one, it is necessary to draw a conclusion about what part of potential consumers are actually interested in purchasing the product (or are already using it). Already here, at the very beginning of the calculations, the company may encounter difficulties, which in the future will force it to abandon the idea of ​​​​conducting analysis at all. You can calculate your real audience using one of the following methods:

1. Surveys and questionnaires. This is cheap and cheerful, but not always effective, since the company risks receiving false information twice. Both the respondent himself and the employee conducting the survey can lie by incorrectly recording the respondent’s feedback.

1. Social media. This method is effective only for certain groups of goods, for example, mobile phones or Internet service packages. It is necessary to proceed from the fact that mostly young people have pages on social networks. Researching, for example, the bakery market using this method will be incorrect, since bread is consumed by everyone, from old to young.

1. Testing respondents. This method involves selecting consumers (respondents) based on various criteria - family wealth, age - and recording their purchases. It is possible to use special scanner cards: the respondent presents such a card when making a purchase, after which the receipt data appears in the company’s database.

Of the methods described above, the third is the most accurate, however, its use is possible only in those countries where trade automation (presence of pin pads) is at a very high level.

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URAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC INSTITUTE

ACADEMY OF LABOR AND SOCIAL RELATIONS

Department of Management

TEST

Course: MARKETING

Market capacity: concept, factors, calculation methods

Completed by a 2nd year student

FSZ-204 group,

Ivanova Veronika Vladimirovna

Chelyabinsk

Plan

Introduction

1.1 Market classification

1.5 Market development model

1.6 Market forecasting

2. Analysis of the calculation of market capacity at Russian enterprises in 2008

2.1 Method for calculating the capacity of the mass consumption market in 2008

2.2 Calculation of meat market capacity in 2008

2.3 Calculation of the capacity of the consumer price market in 2008

2.4 Calculation of the footwear market capacity in 2008

2.6 Calculation of the capacity of the cash foreign currency market in 2008

Conclusion

Introduction

Marketing is a system for managing market activities. This is the planning, implementation and control of activities for the best development, production, sale of the company's products in accordance with market requirements.

Modern marketing as a philosophy guides the development of an organization, and marketing tools allow this to be successfully implemented. But the greatest effect is achieved if marketing works as a holistic management concept and organization management system

The specific result of marketing research is developments that are used in the selection and implementation of the strategy and tactics of an enterprise's marketing activities.

The most frequently encountered problems in the activities of almost all enterprises is determining the possible volume of product sales or identifying the volume of product sales on the market in order to determine their market share and develop further directions for development. A market can be considered either a certain geographical territory or a set of consumers (market segment). The study of product sales volumes on the market involves determining a specific market indicator - market capacity - one of the most important market researches.

Object of study This work focuses on the definition and concept of market capacity.

Subject of study includes market capacity, which is understood as the possible volume of sales of goods (specific products of the enterprise) at a given level and ratio of different prices. Market capacity is characterized by the size of population demand and the amount of product supply.

Purpose of the test is to most fully study the market capacity, show the main advantages and try to identify disadvantages.

The objectives of the control work are:

1. Study the concept of market capacity;

2. Consider the functions, factors, methods of calculating market capacity;

3. Research an analysis of market capacity at Russian enterprises.

1. Classification of markets, basic concepts and definitions of market capacity

1.1 Market classification

In general economic terms, a market is understood as a place where both sellers and buyers, all subjects of the purchase and sale of certain goods, gather to complete the act of purchase and sale. In marketing, the market is usually understood as the totality of all potential consumers who have a need for goods in a particular industry and have the opportunity to satisfy it.

The market is created around various objects that represent some kind of value. In this regard, they talk about the consumer goods market, markets, labor market, securities market, capital market, etc. Depending on the type of consumers, the following types of markets are distinguished: consumer market and organizational markets or organizational markets. The latter are divided into markets for industrial and technical products, resale markets and markets for government institutions. (1)

Consumer market - a set of individuals and families purchasing goods and services for personal consumption. Markets for consumer goods are characterized by the presence of mass consumers, diverse competition, and a decentralized structure.

Product market – technical purpose – a set of organizations and individuals purchasing goods and services that are used in the production of other products. The key strategy for marketing industrial products is systematic sales, during which the buyer makes a systematic purchase.

System procurement - purchasing a package solution to a problem in order to avoid purchasing individual components of a given problem. For example, the government purchasing weapons systems through a general contractor instead of independently purchasing individual components of these systems separately. System procurement usually also includes a set of services.

Resale market – a set of organizations and individuals at all levels (from national to local), purchasing or renting goods and services to perform their functions.

Unlike the consumer market, the market for industrial and technical products is characterized by a smaller number of buyers, but they purchase products in larger quantities. For example, the purchase of tires by automobile companies.

1.2 Concept and definition of market capacity

The main objective of market research is to determine market capacity.

Market capacity is the existing or potential volume of sales of a product over a certain period of time.

The capacity of the commodity market is understood as the possible volume of sales of goods (specific products of the enterprise) at a given level and ratio of different prices. Market capacity is characterized by the size of population demand and the amount of product supply. At each moment of time, the market has quantitative and qualitative certainty, i.e. its volume is expressed in value and physical indicators of the goods sold, and consequently, the goods purchased.

To determine the capacity of national commodity markets when preparing and conducting expert operations, the concept of “visible” consumption of goods is used, i.e. own production of goods in the country minus exports and with the addition of imports of similar goods.

Or = Vв + Vi – Ve

Or – market volume

Vв – production volume

Vi – volume of imports

Vе – export volume

Market capacity is measured in physical and/or monetary terms.

It is necessary to distinguish between two levels of market capacity:

1. potential

2. real.

The actual market capacity is the first level.

Potential capacity denotes the maximum possible sales volume in a market situation when all potential customers purchase goods based on the maximum level of their consumption. Real Capacity assessed as the achievement of actual or projected sales volume of the analyzed product.(2)

1.3 Methodology for studying market capacity

The practice of marketing research shows that data on the market capacity of certain goods and the share occupied by individual manufacturers are currently of great interest to the manufacturers themselves. They are necessary both to expand the position of a company that already has a strong position in the market, and to penetrate the market of a new company or brand.

The need for such information has already been formed: today there are many organizations that conduct this kind of marketing research. However, after reading reports and articles on such studies, numerous questions arise both about the methodology of conducting and about writing the reports. Therefore, I would like to raise the question of the correctness of using certain methods to study market capacity and the most common, in our opinion, errors. We think that this kind of discussion will be interesting and useful to specialists working in this field.

Studying market capacity or market demand involves determining the sales volume in a designated market of a certain brand of product or a set of brands of product for a specific period of time. (3)

The study of these parameters is usually carried out in five main areas:

1. analysis of secondary information;

2. production and sales of products;

3. costs and consumer behavior;

4. calculation of capacity based on consumption rates for a given type of product;

5. determination of capacity based on “reduction” of sales volumes (when the known market capacity in one region is the basis for calculating market capacity in another region by adjusting it using reduction factors).

Consider:

1. Analysis of secondary information . Includes an analysis of all documentation that may contain information about the market we are interested in and may be useful in marketing activities: statistical data, data from governing bodies, market reviews, specialized magazines and articles, Internet data, etc. However, the information obtained by such method, most often turns out to be incomplete, quite difficult to use in practical applications and often of dubious degree of reliability. (4)

2. Market research from the standpoint of production and sales of products. Includes research into manufacturing, wholesale and retail enterprises. Information obtained from this source allows us to determine real sales volumes and representation of manufacturers and brands. Given that the number of sellers is smaller than the number of buyers, such research is often carried out more quickly and costs less than consumer research. The problem is how accurate the information provided by manufacturers or sellers will be, and how representative the surveyed sample of sellers will be of the general population (the entire mass of retail outlets operating on the market selling products).

3. Costs and consumer behavior. We study either the costs that consumers made for the products we are interested in over a certain period of time, or the frequency of purchases and volumes of purchased products together with the average retail selling price, or the consumption rates of a given product. At the same time, the study allows us to raise a wide layer of materials relating to the behavior and motivation of consumers: their attitude towards a particular brand, the volume of a one-time purchase, the frequency of purchasing a product, the expected price of a product, the degree of brand distinctiveness, brand loyalty, motivation for choosing a particular brand goods, etc. The question of the accuracy of such information is how accurately and truthfully buyers will reproduce their consumption data.

4. Calculation of capacity based on consumption rates for a given type of product . This approach is used, as a rule, for food products, raw materials and consumables. The statistical basis for calculations is the annual consumption rates per capita and the total population. Thus, the final capacity figure is obtained by multiplying the consumption rate per inhabitant by the value of the total population.

5. Determination of market capacity based on “reduction” of sales volumes. A similar calculation method is used mainly by companies with significant experience in individual geographic markets. The calculations use data on the actual volume of product sales in one region and factors that determine sales. Using the latter, the coefficients for converting sales from one region to another are determined (coefficients for adjusting the population, average wages, urbanization, prices, consumption patterns, etc.).

Conducting research on manufacturers and sellers of products in order to obtain market data is quite common for a marketing company, but errors can occur here too.

As experience shows, one of the most common mistakes is failure to ensure representativeness of the sample.

Identification of cause-and-effect relationships in the market under study is carried out on the basis of systematization and analysis of data. Systematization of data consists of constructing grouped and analytical tables, time series of analyzed indicators, graphs, charts, etc. This is the preparatory stage of information analysis for its quantitative and qualitative assessment.

Processing and analysis is carried out using well-known methods, namely grouping, index and graphical methods, construction and analysis of time series. Cause-and-effect relationships and dependencies are established as a result of correlation and regression analysis of time series.

Ultimately, a description of the cause-and-effect relationships caused by the interaction of various factors will make it possible to build a model of development in the market and determine its capacity.

1.4 Factors influencing market capacity

Market capacity is formed under the influence of many factors, each of which can, in certain situations, both stimulate the market and restrain its development, limiting its capacity. The entire set of factors can be divided into two groups: general and specific.

General are socio-economic factors that determine the market capacity of any product:

Volume and structure of product offerings, including by representative enterprises;

Assortment and quality of manufactured products;

Import volumes for a given product or group;

The achieved standard of living and needs of the population;

Purchasing power of the population;

Level of price ratio for goods;

Population size;

Its social and age and gender composition;

Degree of market saturation;

State of the sales, trade and service network;

Geographical location of the market.

Currently, the state of the market is significantly influenced by such processes as the isolation of territory and the introduction of new monetary units, the formation of commercial structures, inflation, the introduction of new customs restrictions, etc.

Specific factors determine the development of markets for individual goods, and each market may have factors characteristic only for it. In this case, a specific factor in terms of the degree of influence may be decisive for the formation and development of supply and demand for a specific product. Specific factors include:

1. size and composition of the wardrobe, natural and climatic conditions, fashion changes, national and everyday traditions (for the fabric, clothing and footwear markets);

2. the achieved level of security, the timing of physical and moral wear and tear, the growth of housing construction, the development of a rental network, the rationalization of everyday life, the rise in energy prices (for durable goods).

The set of factors that determine the development of supply and demand in individual markets is in a complex dialectical relationship. A change in the action of some factors causes a change in the action of others. The peculiarity of some factors is that they cause changes in both the overall capacity and structure of the market, while others are that they, without changing the overall capacity of the market, cause its structural changes. In the process of market research, it is necessary to explain the mechanism of action of the system of factors and measure the cumulative results of their influence on the volume and structure of demand and supply in a particular market.

Identification of cause-and-effect relationships in the market under study is carried out on the basis of systematization and analysis of data. Systematization of data consists of constructing grouping and analytical tables, time series of analyzed indicators, graphs, diagrams, etc. This is the preparatory stage of information analysis for its quantitative and qualitative assessment.

Data processing and analysis are carried out using methods known and described in textbooks on statistics, namely: grouping, index and graphical methods, construction and analysis of time series. Cause-and-effect relationships and dependencies are established as a result of correlation and regression analysis of time series.

Ultimately, a description of the cause-and-effect relationships caused by the interaction of various factors will make it possible to build a model of market development and determine its capacity. The construction of such a model should be preceded by clarification of the working hypothesis, which is initially formulated at the initial stage of work along with the definition of the goals and objectives of the study. An in-depth analysis of information sources can significantly change initial ideas about the prospects for market development. A refined hypothesis is a form of formulation of an economic problem, based on which a market development model and forecasting apparatus are developed.

1.5 Market development model

The market development model is a conditional reflection of reality and schematically expresses the internal structure and causal relationships of a given market. It allows, using a system of indicators in a simplified form, to characterize the qualitative uniqueness of the development of all the main elements of the market at the present stage and at a given period of time in the future.

A formalized model of market development represents a system of equations covering its main indicators. For each market, the system may have a different number of equations and indicators, but in any case it must include supply and demand equations.

When drawing up a market development model, you must:

Firstly, determining the prospects for the development of a particular market cannot be carried out in isolation from other socio-economic forecasts (demographic, regional, etc.), from similar projections for complementary and interchangeable goods.

Secondly, taking into account the influence on the development of the product market of a large number of factors, the development trends of which may change significantly in the future, determines the need to build several options for market development models and find the optimal option from several.

Third An essential point that makes up the problems of constructing a market development model is determining the degree of aggregation of product groups. It is necessary to clearly understand at what level the capacity forecast should be made.

All these points largely depend on the forecast period. There are several types of forecasting: market forecasting (3 - 6 months), short-term (1 - 2 years), medium-term (3 - 5 years), long-term (5 - 10 years), long-term (more than 10 years).

Obviously, the shorter the forecast period, the easier it is to foresee and correctly assess the degree of influence of the factors determining it on the development of the market. As the forecast period lengthens, the number of model options increases.

The main sources of information about future market characteristics are:

1. human experience and intuition;

2. extrapolation of trends, processes, the patterns of development of which in the past and present are well known;

3. a model of the process under study, reflecting the desired trends in its development.

Accordingly, there are three complementary ways to develop a forecast:

1. Questionnaire- identifying the opinions of the population and experts in order to obtain forecast estimates. Methods based on questionnaires are used, as a rule, in cases where, for a number of reasons, the patterns of process development cannot be reflected by a formal apparatus, when the necessary data are not available. Expert methods based on the knowledge and intuition of specialists are widely used in forecast market research, especially when assessing the market capacity of new (modified) products.

2. Extrapolation- continuation of process trends into the future, reflected in the form of time series and their indicators, based on developed regression-type models. Extrapolation methods are usually used in cases where there is sufficient information about the past and stable trends have been identified. This option is based on the hypothesis that previously established trends will continue in the future.

This kind of forecasting is called genetic and involves the study of econometric models. In most studies of commodity markets, the time factor (trend) is introduced into the model as the most important factor determining market development. The trend extrapolation procedure involves selecting trend forecasting models and the shape of the curve that most closely describes a set of empirical data.

3. Analytical modeling- construction and use of a model reflecting internal and external relationships during market development. This group of methods is used when information about the past is minimal, but there are some hypothetical ideas about the market that make it possible to develop a market model and, on this basis, assess the future state of the market and reproduce alternative options for its development. This approach to forecasting is called target (normative). The use of a target (normative) forecasting method begins with an assessment of goals, which can be: achieving a certain market share for the product being manufactured; desired level of satisfaction of needs, etc. Based on these goals, feedback is established on the activities required to achieve them (5).

The above division of methods is somewhat arbitrary. In practice, all of them can mutually intersect and complement each other, since in some cases none of them by itself can provide the required degree of reliability and accuracy of the forecast, but when used in certain combinations they turn out to be very effective.

The result of the work to determine the market capacity should be a comprehensive analytical review of the state of the market and the factors that formulate it, as well as a multi-variant forecast of market development, taking into account changing trends in the internal and external factors influencing it.

The activity of an enterprise in researching product markets coincides with the method available in marketing for studying the external market conditions of the market that make up the life cycle of a product. Obviously, the market is heterogeneous, so you can find different groups of consumers with different goals and means.

It is the choice of the characteristic by which the market is divided into segments that determines the conditions for the sequence of inclusion of a product into circulation and the quantity of this product at a certain price that satisfies a given market segment.

1.6 Market forecasting

The general goal of market research is to determine the conditions under which the most complete satisfaction of the population's demand for goods of a given type is ensured and the prerequisites are created for the effective marketing of manufactured products.

In accordance with this, the primary task of market research is to analyze the current relationship between supply and demand, i.e. market conditions.

Three levels of market research are considered: general economic, sectoral and product.(6)

An integrated approach to studying market conditions involves:

Use of various, complementary sources of information;

A combination of retrospective analysis with a buyer forecast characterizing market conditions;

Application of a combination of various methods of analysis and forecasting.

Collection of information - the most important stage in studying market conditions. There is no single source of information about the environment that would contain all the information about the processes being studied. The research uses different types of information obtained from different sources. Information is distinguished: general, commercial, special.

General information includes data characterizing the market situation as a whole, in connection with the development of the industry or a given production. The sources of its receipt are data from state and industry statistics, official forms of accounting and reporting.

Commercial information - this is data extracted from the business documentation of the enterprise on the sale of manufactured products and received from partners in the order of information exchange. These include:

Applications and orders from trade organizations;

Materials from market research services of enterprises, organizations and trade institutions (materials on the movement of goods in wholesale and retail organizations, market reviews, proposals for the current replacement of assortment, etc.).

Special information represents data obtained as a result of special market research events (surveys of the population, buyers, trade and industry specialists, experts, exhibitions and sales, market meetings), as well as materials from research organizations.

Special information is of particular value because it contains

Market Forecast - this is a scientific forecast of the prospects for the development of demand, product supply and prices, carried out within the framework of a certain methodology, based on reliable information, with an assessment of its possible error.

The market forecast is based on taking into account the patterns and trends of its development, the main factors determining this development, observing strict objectivity and scientific integrity when assessing data and forecasting results.

In general, developing a market forecast has four stages:

Establishment of the forecast object;

Choosing a forecasting method;

Forecast development process;

Assessment of forecast accuracy;

Establishment of the forecast object - the most important stage of scientific foresight. For example, in practice the concepts of sales and demand, supply and product supply, market prices and selling prices are often identified. Finance, money circulation and credit.

Under certain conditions, such replacements are possible, but with appropriate reservations and subsequent adjustments to the results of forecast calculations.

The choice of forecasting method depends on the purpose of the forecast, its lead time, the level of detail and the availability of initial (basic) information.

If a forecast of the possible sale of a product is made to determine prospects

development of a retail trading network, then more rough, estimated forecasting methods can be used. If it is performed to justify the purchase of specific goods for the next month, then more accurate methods should be used.

The process of developing a forecast consists of carrying out calculations, performed either manually or using a computer, with subsequent adjustment of their results at a high-quality, professional level.

The accuracy of the forecast is assessed by calculating its possible errors. Therefore, forecast results are almost always presented in interval form.

Market forecasts are classified according to several criteria:

1. Based on lead time, the following are distinguished: short-term forecasts (from several days to 2 years); medium-term forecasts (from 2 to 7 years); long-term forecasts (more than 7 years). Naturally, they differ not only in the lead period, but also in the level of detail and the forecasting methods used.

2. Market forecasts are distinguished by product characteristics: specific goods, types of goods, product groups, complex of goods, all goods.

3. Market forecasts are made on a regional basis for: specific consumers, administrative districts, large regions, countries, the whole world

4. Based on the essence of the methods used, forecast groups are distinguished, the basis of which is:

Extrapolation of dynamics series (Market capacity)

Interpolation of a dynamic series - finding the missing members of a dynamic series within it;

Demand elasticity coefficients;

-Structural modeling - is a statistical table containing a grouping of consumers according to the most significant characteristic, where for each group the structure of consumption of goods is given.

When the structure of consumers changes, the average consumption (and therefore demand) of these goods also changes. One of the forecasting methods is built on this basis.

-Expert review . This method is used in markets for new goods when basic information has not yet been formed, or in markets for traditional goods that have not been studied for a long time. It is based on a survey of experts - fairly competent specialists.

Economic and mathematical modeling;

The results of the analysis of projected indicators of market conditions in combination with reporting and planning data make it possible to develop measures in advance aimed at developing positive processes, eliminating existing ones and preventing possible imbalances and can be provided in the form of various analytical documents.

- Summary review, or report. The main document with general indicators of the market, consumer goods. The dynamics of general economic and industry indicators and special market conditions are analyzed. A retrospective is carried out and a forecast of market indicators is given, the most characteristic trends are highlighted, and the interrelationships of the conditions of individual markets are revealed.

- Thematic (problem or product) review of the market situation. Documents reflecting the specifics of a particular situation or a particular market. The most pressing problems, typical for a number of products, or the problem of a specific product market are identified.

- Operational (signal) market information. A document containing operational information, which is a kind of “signal” about individual processes of market conditions. The main sources of operational information are data from trade correspondents, population surveys, and expert assessments of specialists.

1.7 Methods for calculating market capacity

Calculating market capacity is necessary in order to correctly assess the dynamics of changes in the market, assess market prospects and understand what market share the product/brand occupies.

Market capacity is measured in physical and/or monetary terms within a certain geographic segment, usually a year is taken over the time period (due to the seasonality of many products).

Market capacity tends to increase, decrease, or remain

unchanged. Market capacity depends on the market need for a given product or service, as well as other factors.

Estimated market capacity- this is a “calculated or predicted value” and nothing more. This value is calculated based on certain assumptions and generalizations of various facts that occurred in the past, but not in the future. However, it often happens that calculated and real indicators of market capacity differ.

Mathematically, market capacity can be expressed as follows:

E = M x C; Where:

E - market capacity in physical or monetary terms (units/year, rub./year);

M - quantity of goods sold per year (units);

C - cost of goods (rub.)

There are various approaches and methods for calculating market capacity:

1. Expert approach to determining market capacity;

2. Economic and mathematical modeling of market capacity;

The simplest method for assessing market capacity using an economic-mathematical approach is the formation of trend models, which are based on mathematical alignment of the dynamic series of actual values ​​of total consumption of a specific group of goods or services that occurred at separate points in time t, by selecting a functional relationship and calculating its parameters, those. definition of dependencies of the form: (7)

where E is the value of the market capacity of a specific group of goods or services;

t - time parameter.

The resulting trend models provide the ability to extrapolate the identified dependencies to planned points in time in order to obtain forecast estimates of market capacity.

3. Forecasting method

4. Average assessment method based on individual expert assessments.

Experts - employees of the organization, external experts and consultants - express an individual opinion regarding the possible value of market capacity in the planning period. Based on the assessments of all experts, the final assessment of market capacity is calculated as a simple arithmetic average of individual expert assessments.

5. Method of pessimistic, optimistic and most probable opinions. Experts express pessimistic, optimistic and most probabilistic opinions regarding the size of the market capacity; each opinion is assigned a weight coefficient characterizing the likelihood of a situation occurring in which the actual market capacity will correspond to the expert assessment. For each expert, the final assessment is determined as the arithmetic mean of the weighted optimistic, pessimistic and most probable assessments, taking into account their weighting coefficients. The simple arithmetic average of the final expert estimates characterizes the forecast of market capacity.

6. Commission method. A group of organization specialists and industry experts makes an agreed decision regarding the possible value of market capacity in the planning period.

7. Delphi method. Repeated individual expert surveys: expert assessments obtained during the first survey are provided to each expert so that he can clarify his individual assessment taking into account the opinions of other experts. Procedures for clarifying opinions are carried out until the spread of opinions of all experts corresponds to a predetermined value of their variance; The final forecast assessment of market capacity is the average of individual expert opinions.

8. Method of the composite index of readiness to purchase products potential consumers. Potential consumers of products express their attitude to the degree of attractiveness for them of certain product groups.

A method for calculating market capacity based on statistical data, as well as a number of other methods.

It should be borne in mind that any calculation of market capacity has its own characteristics, and sometimes requires the introduction of certain correction factors.

Analysis of methods for calculating market capacity at Russian enterprises 2008

2.1 Method for calculating the capacity of the mass market

Under consideration method definitions containers markets mass consumption using the example of a forecast assessment of the size of the public catering market in Beloretsk in 2008. Proposed method allows you to obtain a reliable assessment based on the mathematical interpretation of publicly available statistical data and forecast estimates of specialists from marketing and analytical agencies.

Method in question assessing the capacity of the mass consumption market is based on an analysis of publicly available indicators of the socio-economic development of the region, in which the capacity of the market under study is assessed, in comparison with similar data for the country as a whole or for individual regions of Russia, for which the size of this market is known. The example used to calculate the capacity of the public catering market in Beloretsk is based on a comparative assessment of the purchasing power of residents of Moscow and Beloretsk. According to official data from the Moscow Consumer Market Department, out of 8 thousand public catering establishments in the capital, about 3 thousand are fast food establishments. In Moscow there are 121 stationary fast foods, 1001 points on wheels and about 3.1 thousand tents and carts selling pies, hot dogs and shawarma. If in 2007 the volume of the Moscow public catering market was estimated at around $300 million, then in 2008, according to MAGRAM Market Research forecasts, it will amount to more than $480 million.

Thus, in 2007, the average Moscow resident (based on a population of 10.36 million people) spent an average of 870 rubles on fast food, and in 2008 this figure will be about 1,400 rubles. Let's calculate the coefficient of adaptation of data on the Moscow public catering market to calculate the capacity of the public catering market in Beloretsk. The values ​​of indicators of the socio-economic situation of Moscow are used in calculations as basic ones in relation to similar indicators for the city of Beloretsk. The adaptation coefficient (K a) is calculated as follows:

K a = K 1 x K 2 x K 3,

where K 1 is the ratio of the growth rate of retail trade turnover in the city of Beloretsk to the growth rate of retail trade turnover in Moscow for the same period in comparable prices;

K 2 is the ratio of the number of fixed sets of consumer goods and services that can be purchased with the average monthly nominal accrued wages in Beloretsk to a similar indicator in Moscow on the same date;

K 3 is the ratio of the growth rate of real monetary incomes of the population in Beloretsk to the growth rate of real monetary incomes of the population in Moscow for the same period.

In January-June 2007, the growth rate of retail trade turnover compared to the corresponding period in 2006 in comparable prices in Moscow and Beloretsk amounted to 7.2 and 12.2%, respectively. Thus, K 1 = 1.69.

Cost of a fixed set of consumer goods and services 2 in August 2007. in Moscow and Beloretsk amounted to 5318.1 and 2957.6 rubles, respectively.

The average monthly nominal accrued wages 3 in August 2007 in Moscow and Beloretsk amounted to 7559.2 and 3319.7 rubles, respectively.

Thus, the number of fixed sets of consumer goods and services that can be purchased with the average monthly nominal accrued wage in August 2007 in Moscow and Beloretsk was 1.42 and 1.12, respectively. Thus, K 2 = 0.79.

The growth rate of real cash income of the population 4 compared to the first half of 2006 in Moscow and Beloretsk was 18.9 and 6.1%, respectively. Thus, K 3 = 0.32.

The value of the adaptation coefficient of data on the Moscow public catering market for calculating the capacity of the public catering market in Beloretsk as of September 1, 2007 is:

K a = 1.69 x 0.79 x 0.32 = 0.43.

Thus, in 2008, the average resident of Beloretsk will spend on fast food:

1400 rub. x 0.43 = 602 rub.

The population of Beloretsk, according to preliminary data from the All-Russian Population Census, at the end of 2006 was 1382.3 thousand people. Natural population decline for six months of 2007 was registered at the level of 8.6 people per 1000 people, or 11.9 thousand people in absolute value. If this trend continues in the second half of 2007, the population of Beloretsk as of January 1, 2008 will be:

1382.3 thousand people - (11.9 thousand people x 2) = 1358.5 thousand people.

The predicted capacity of the public catering market in Beloretsk (based on data on the Moscow public catering market and using the adaptation coefficient to calculate the capacity of the public catering market in Beloretsk) in 2008 will be:

602 rub. x 1358.5 thousand people = 817.82 million rubles.

The most reliable trend line is the one for which the value R 2 is equal to or close to one. In this case the value R 2 is 0.91. This indicates that the trend line values ​​are sufficiently close to the actual data. (Fig. 1)

Fig. 1 Regression analysis using linear approximation to predict the value of the “public catering turnover” indicator in 2008.

2.2 Calculation of meat market capacity (for example, Krasnodar)

Meat consumption per capita, according to the State Statistics Committee, is at least 49 kg/year per capita, with a recommended norm of 74-75 kg/year.

Population of Krasnodar - 1,080,000 people.

Meat market capacity by city in physical terms, kg/year. Table 1

Structure of meat consumption in Russia

2008
Name	kg	%
Beef	19	39
Pork	14	29
Poultry meat	12	24
Other	4	8

Estimated capacity of the pork market in Krasnodar in physical terms, kg/year. Table 3

We accept the cost of 1 kg. pig meat - 100 rub. Consequently, the pig meat market capacity in price terms is about 1.535 billion rubles/year. The volume of sales of pigs for slaughter in live weight by agricultural enterprises in 2008 increased by 5.4%. The maximum increase in sales of pigs in live weight in agricultural enterprises was recorded in the Central Federal District (19.7%).

In October 2008, processing enterprises produced pork in double weight by 5.3% more than in September 2008. Compared to September 2008, in October 2008, the volume of pork imports increased by 5.4%, and relative to the same period last year, pork imports in October 2008 increased by 26.0%. The top three importing countries are Brazil, the USA and Canada, whose total share in the total volume of imports is approximately 69.7%.

2.3 Calculation of the capacity of the consumer price market

The much-maligned financial crisis had a positive impact on the dynamics of consumer price growth – it slowed down.

According to Rosstat, over the past week the consumer price index amounted to 100.2%, from the beginning of the month - 100.4%, from the beginning of the year - 112.0%. In 2007: from the beginning of the month - 100.6%, from the beginning of the year - 110.0%, for November as a whole - 101.2%.

Over the past period, chicken prices have increased the most - by 0.7%. Prices for eggs, canned meat, certain types of sausages and confectionery products increased by 0.5-0.6%.

At the same time, flour, sunflower oil, sugar, rice and millet fell in price by 0.1-0.5%.

Prices for fruits and vegetables increased on average by 0.3%, including cabbage and potatoes - by 1.0% and 0.5%. Onions fell in price by 0.6%.

2.4 Calculation of footwear market capacity

The capacity of the Russian footwear market is about 13 billion dollars and more than 270 million pairs of shoes

According to the data obtained, more than a third of respondents purchase 2-3 pairs of shoes per year (22% and 16%, respectively). This group can be called the most numerous. The second largest group is people who purchase more than 3 pairs per year, slightly less than a quarter of respondents (4 pairs - 9%, 5 pairs - 4%, more than 6 pairs - 10%). The shares of Russians who bought 1 pair over the last year (13%) and those who did not buy at all (15%) are approximately equal, while 11% of respondents found it difficult to answer. It should be noted that the survey was conducted among the adult population and does not take into account shoes for children, teenagers and special shoes.

2.5 Calculation of the Car Market capacity

On the Russian market, there is not just a slowdown in sales growth, but a clear decline in the market. In the peak year of 2008, sales of foreign cars reached 202,309 units; in the following months, such figures were no longer observed. In October 2008 foreign companies sold only 169,115 cars in Russia, which is 16% less than the October peak and 6% less than a month earlier in September. This simply cannot be called a seasonal decline.

Analysis of sales of foreign cars in Russia in 2008.

№	model		September 2008,	October 2008	Change per month,%
1	Chevrolet	199 288	23 490	16 353	43.64
2	Hyundai	171 497	12 105	16 110	-24.86
3	Toyota	162 961	17 573	18 233	-3.62
4	Ford	154 969	13 555	12 600	7.58
5	Nissan	127 459	8 659	14 372	-39.75
6	Mitsubishi	99 011	9 549	10 085	-5.31
7	Renault	92 647	8 707	8 400	3.65
8	Daewoo	87 779	7 710	8 795	-12.34
9	Opel	85 567	7 516	7 758	-3.12
10	Kia	78 483	5 380	6 924	-22.30

Nevertheless, compared to last year, October was still a prosperous month. October 2008 sales are 9% better than October 2007 sales. Compared to the leading European automotive countries, this is an outstanding figure. For example, car sales in the UK fell by 23% in October.

In October, three-quarters of auto companies experienced a sales decline firsthand. Among the companies with the largest sales volumes, Nissan, Mazda and Hyundai were hit particularly hard. Compared to September, their sales fell by 40%, 26% and 25%, respectively. Moreover, Nissan and Hyundai were unable to surpass their October results of last year. Sales of Dodge (-61%), SsangYong (-57%), Jaguar (-48%), Chrysler (-40%), Saab (-39%) suffered seriously in October.

But there are brands that do not seem to notice the crisis situation or take the necessary measures in a timely manner so that their products do not linger in warehouses. The performance of Chevrolet is amazing, sales of which are growing every month. In October 2008, Chevrolet sold 44% more cars than the previous month. Ford, Renault and Skoda did not notice the crisis - their sales are growing. SEAT continues to increase its presence on the Russian market, sales are growing, although in quantitative terms the result is still meager. Japanese Subaru also managed to increase sales.

2.6 Calculation of the capacity of the cash foreign currency market

The capacity of the cash foreign currency market in Russia in November 2008 decreased by 26 percent to $23.2 billion – Central Bank

Market capacity - the total volume of cash foreign currency from all sources of income, including balances in the cash desks of authorized banks at the beginning of the period - in Russia in November 2008 decreased by 26 percent and amounted to $23.2 billion. Interbank market turnover decreased by 34 percent, turnover transactions of individuals - by 23 percent, to $8 billion and $18.1 billion, respectively. Such data are provided in the review of the state of the domestic cash foreign currency market for November 2008 published today by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

In November 2008, the population's total demand for cash foreign currency (the amount of cash foreign currency purchased at exchange offices, received through conversion and withdrawn from foreign currency accounts) decreased by 24 percent and amounted to $12.9 billion. However, its volumes remained large , exceeding the total demand in the same periods of 2006 and 2007 by approximately 2 times.

The population's demand for European currency decreased by 37 percent compared to the previous month, and for US dollars - by 11 percent. The share of the dollar in the structure of aggregate demand increased to 58 percent in November compared to 50 percent in October, the share of the euro decreased to 41 percent versus 49 percent, respectively.

The volume of cash foreign currency withdrawn by individuals from foreign currency accounts opened with authorized banks decreased significantly - to $3.3 billion, which is 42 percent less than in the previous month. At the same time, euros were withdrawn two times less than a month earlier, and dollars were withdrawn by almost a third.

In November 2008, the population's net demand for cash foreign currency decreased by 26 percent compared to the previous month - to $7.6 billion. Net demand was formed exclusively through the purchase and sale of cash foreign currency by individuals at exchange offices of authorized banks.

Considering the significant volumes of cash foreign currency remaining in cash registers since October, authorized banks in November 2008 sharply - by 2.3 times - reduced the import of cash foreign currency into the country - from $13.4 billion in October to $5.9 billion in November . The import of cash in euros decreased by 2.6 times compared to October, and in dollars by 1.9 times.

Thus, in November 2008, in the cash foreign currency market there was a significant reduction in the volume of all transactions related to its receipt and expenditure. The balance of cash foreign currency in the cash desks of authorized banks decreased over the month by almost $1.7 billion and amounted to about $5.5 billion (Fig. 6)

2.7 The most profitable and efficient banks for 9 months. 2008

The situation on the stock market affected the dynamics of the profits of all banks, some of which recorded losses. So for the month of September, among the banks included in Top 30, a balance sheet loss was shown

VTB (-32%), Gazprombank (-32%), Petrocommerce (-29%),

Rus-Bank (-13%), Rosbank (-9%), Zenit (-8%) and Uralsib (-3%).

Top500 profitable banks for 9 months of 2008

The most profitable and efficient banks for 9 months. 2008

№	Bank	Balance sheet profit as of 10/01/08, million rubles.	Balance sheet profit as of 10/01/07, million rubles.	Change over the year, %	Change no.
1	Sberbank	134 824.3	102 852.2	31.09	0
2	VTB	16 814.0	13 654.0	23.14	1
3	Alfa Bank	12 595.4	6 112.2	106.07	6
4	Gazprombank	11 185.8	22 798.5	-50.94	-2
5	UniCredit Bank	9 134.0	5 926.9	54.11	7
6	Raiffeisenbank	8 499.2	9 860.3	-13.80	-1
7	VTB Bank North-West	6 374.2	6 068.7	5.03	4
8	Promsvyazbank	6 149.1	5 250.4	17.12	5
9	Bank of Moscow	6 096.3	6 477.6	-5.89	-1

Even the most conservative securities portfolios suffered from the fall in stock indices. Thus, Sberbank, which has investments in securities totaling 490 billion rubles. consist primarily of government bonds; in the third quarter, it received a loss from transactions with securities of 0.3 billion rubles. Other state banks suffered larger losses. In September, VTB received a loss of 9.3 billion rubles on its securities portfolio, which VTB board member Nikolai Tsekhomsky associated primarily with revaluation. Record losses of Gazprombank for the third quarter in the amount of 4.3 billion rubles. The bank also associates this with the negative situation on the stock markets. A number of banks claim that their losses on securities are associated solely with revaluation. Thus, Petrocommerce Bank, which reduced its profits by a third, states that losses from revaluation are temporary and will be compensated as bonds are repaid, most of which are state and municipal securities. The bank’s liquidity is fine; Petrocommerce is a net lender on the interbank lending market, the bank’s press service emphasizes.

As of October 1, 2008, 1,123 banks were registered in Russia. However, some experts predict a significant reduction in their number. Thus, according to a review by the investment bank Renaissance Capital, in 2009 only banks included in the thirty largest will be in an advantageous position; for the rest, “the topic of mergers and acquisitions will be relevant.”

Investment bank Renaissance Capital published an analytical report “Russian Banks: Love Weakens Every Day,” in which it assessed the prospects for the country’s banking sector in 2009. The main conclusion of the authors of the review: only banks included in the thirty largest will be in an advantageous position; for the rest, “the topic of mergers and acquisitions will be relevant.” As indicated in the review, only five state-owned banks will grow at a faster pace, while another 25 largest banks will show an increase in assets at the market average level in 2009. “Smaller lenders will experience greater funding pressures and are likely to grow at a lower, often negative rate, and M&A will be a hot topic for many of them.”

It should be borne in mind that any calculation of market capacity has its own characteristics, and sometimes requires the introduction of certain correction factors

Conclusion

One of the most important market research is the study of market capacity, which refers to the total effective demand of buyers; the possible annual sales volume of a certain type of product at the current average price level.

A meaningful conclusion with complete information about the capacity of the market you are interested in?

1. Information about market capacity is necessary in order to assess the company’s position in dynamics: growth or stagnation.

Why do you need to know what the market capacity of a particular product or group of products is and what share the company occupies in the market?

First of all, in order to correctly assess the situation and the dynamics of changes in the market and, accordingly, make the only correct management decisions, which in the future will affect the viability of this enterprise or the product it produces (sells).

The specifics of market capacity research may vary depending on what industry the enterprise belongs to: for some it will be easier to collect the necessary information, for others it will be more difficult. Those businesses that manage to collect the most useful information have the best chance of success. Market research of market capacity answers the question of whether a market exists; marketing research provides answers to more practical questions: does a market exist for a given product, how to enter it and gain a foothold by collecting information.

Market research of market capacity involves a thorough study of economic conditions associated with the study of supply and demand in the market and its individual segments, the capacity and nature of the market, the price level and price elasticity of supply and demand, the degree and conditions of market competition.

Market research of market capacity is necessary for making appropriate decisions at all levels of marketing activities - strategic, tactical and operational.

Market research of market capacity involves the analysis and forecast of various economic and demographic, social, natural, political and other conditions and circumstances. The activity of an enterprise in researching product markets coincides with the method available in marketing for studying the external market conditions of the market that make up the life cycle of a product.

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